NYY vs ARI prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.0 - NYY 3.6. ARI is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
ARI
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARINYY
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
ARI
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph32% whiff
FC25%95 mph20% whiff
SI20%98 mph14% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph12% whiff
SI17%93 mph11% whiff
CH16%87 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
101°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.20ERA
4.12FIP
8.28K/9
3.62BB/9
1.24WHIP
ARI
3.17ERA
3.42FIP
8.10K/9
2.96BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.9 runs
38.3% win
ARI F5
2.1 runs
43.2% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ARI5 injured
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.