NYY vs BAL prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.7 - NYY 4.7. NYY is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
BAL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.7 — NYY 4.7
Actual
BAL 1 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%94 mph23% whiff
SL24%86 mph28% whiff
CH16%86 mph41% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph14% whiff
KC32%85 mph27% whiff
FC16%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
88°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.06ERA
3.96FIP
8.47K/9
3.63BB/9
1.22WHIP
BAL
4.40ERA
3.93FIP
8.64K/9
3.72BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.4 runs
44.9% win
BAL F5
2.2 runs
39.9% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.