FINAL: NYM 2 — SD 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.2 - SD 3.6 (SD at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSD
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5NYM L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.2 — SD 3.6
Actual
NYM 2 — SD 5
Pick Results
SD @ NYM NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
SL25%86 mph32% whiff
CH18%86 mph25% whiff
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%88 mph16% whiff
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
SL15%85 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
80°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.027
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.12ERA
3.65FIP
9.64K/9
3.74BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYM
4.25ERA
4.33FIP
9.17K/9
4.24BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-19.5% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.6% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.5% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+6.4% EV
-128
F5_ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.0% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.8 runs
40.1% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Ty France SD28.7%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD28.5%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM28.0%
ISO: 0.095 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Zac Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM7 injured
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects UNDER 8.5 with 10.5% edge (model 57.9% vs market 47.4%), driven by tight low-scoring pitcher matchup (Thornton 3.0 ERA vs Ray 3.54 ERA) at neutral Citi Field. F5 UNDER 4.5 shows even stronger 17.6% edge, the best F5 total signal on the slate.
Key Factors
- Balanced low-scoring SP matchup: Thornton 3.0 BayERA vs Ray 3.54 BayERA — both mid-tier, total runs suppressed
- Model-market divergence: Model 6.79 total runs vs market 8.5 line, 1.71 run gap = 10.5% edge UNDER
- F5 UNDER 4.5 strongest edge on slate: 17.6% (model 60.0%)
- NRFI 63.5% aligns with suppressed early-inning scoring narrative
Risk Factors
- Total market historically underperforms (a supportive track record) despite historical support edges — regression likely
- 10.5% edge contradicts calibration (>10% edge historical supports show worst historical performance) — cap to LEAN not BET
- F5 totals market itself disabled in pipeline — treat as directional signal, not standalone bet
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 52.6%
-3.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-3.4 pts
Total
8.5
+10.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.