TOR vs TB prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.2 - TOR 2.5. TB is favored with a 63.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
TB
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.0% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
124
TB
246
Projected
TB 4.2 — TOR 2.5
Actual
TB 5 — TOR 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI27%96 mph20% whiff
KC26%85 mph43% whiff
FF24%97 mph20% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph30% whiff
FC21%89 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F12 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.70ERA
4.19FIP
8.10K/9
3.85BB/9
1.30WHIP
TB
3.90ERA
3.94FIP
8.99K/9
2.79BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.2 runs
25.2% win
TB F5
2.3 runs
54.3% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
67.6%
YRFI
32.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7-DAY IL
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.