ARI vs BOS prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.7 - ARI 4.6. BOS is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
BOS
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSARI
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
BOS
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH27%88 mph30% whiff
FF27%92 mph11% whiff
FC14%91 mph10% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph11% whiff
FF22%92 mph16% whiff
FC21%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
72°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.59ERA
3.70FIP
7.74K/9
3.08BB/9
1.19WHIP
BOS
3.31ERA
3.47FIP
9.54K/9
3.04BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.3 runs
28.3% win
BOS F5
3.7 runs
59.0% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
48.4%
YRFI
51.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Nolan Arenado 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Ketel Marte 2BOUT
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Jahmai Jones DHDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.