DET vs PIT prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.0 - DET 4.4. PIT is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
PIT
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITDET
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 5.0 — DET 4.4
Actual
PIT 4 — DET 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph12% whiff
SI22%95 mph7% whiff
SL19%86 mph25% whiff
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph39% whiff
SL23%92 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
80°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.25ERA
4.54FIP
8.40K/9
4.34BB/9
1.36WHIP
PIT
3.60ERA
3.65FIP
9.89K/9
4.22BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.3 runs
36.2% win
PIT F5
2.8 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
James Outman CF7-DAY IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.