SF vs CLE prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.0 - SF 4.2. CLE is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
CLE
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESF
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.0 — SF 4.2
Actual
CLE 8 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carson Whisenhunt L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH38%83 mph40% whiff
FF35%93 mph8% whiff
SL20%85 mph26% whiff
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph17% whiff
FF17%92 mph17% whiff
ST14%80 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.82ERA
4.69FIP
7.29K/9
4.69BB/9
1.50WHIP
CLE
3.65ERA
3.93FIP
9.87K/9
3.95BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.3 runs
36.0% win
CLE F5
2.9 runs
49.3% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.