FINAL: LAA 3 — NYY 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 2.6 - NYY 4.6 (NYY at 62.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
LAA
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAANYY
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W4LAA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,658 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 2.6 — NYY 4.6
Actual
LAA 3 — NYY 7
Pick Results
NYY @ LAA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
NYY @ LAA F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph26% whiff
CH14%86 mph20% whiff
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%96 mph12% whiff
CH24%83 mph31% whiff
SL11%85 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.036
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.05ERA
3.98FIP
8.39K/9
3.54BB/9
1.21WHIP
LAA
4.05ERA
4.20FIP
9.50K/9
3.88BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-11.1% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-10.2% EV
+150
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-8.3% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-4.0% EV
-189
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-2.0% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
53.2% win
LAA F5
1.5 runs
28.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.2%
YRFI
39.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA27.6%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.98x
Luis García Jr. NYY26.9%
ISO: 0.124 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Despite Gerrit Cole's overwhelming pitching edge (3.45 ERA vs Grayson Rodriguez's 6.51 ERA), the negative ML edge (-4.0%) combined with the structural away-ML historically weak makes this a value trap, not a bet, despite the seductive fundamentals.
Key Factors
- Elite pitching mismatch: Cole 3.45 ERA vs Rodriguez 6.51 ERA = 3.06 run gap, largest ERA differential on slate
- But ML edge is negative: -4.0%, meaning market has priced NYY even stronger than the model
- Away ML structural historically weak: 46.1% historical WR (191 samples) compounds the negative edge
- F5_ML also negative for away (-2.0%), removing that alternative play
- NRFI edge too marginal: +1.1%, not actionable alone
Risk Factors
- Away ML historically underperforms even when the fundamental case looks strong — this is the textbook example
- Rodriguez could have a career-best outing (low probability, but games are won on such days)
- No accessible market (F5_ML disabled) to isolate Cole's start-only dominance
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 62.0%
-8.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-8.3 pts
Total
7.5
+0.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.