PHI vs DET prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.4 - PHI 4.3. PHI is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
DET
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETPHI
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.4 — PHI 4.3
Actual
DET 2 — PHI 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH39%87 mph42% whiff
SL19%86 mph42% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF34%94 mph24% whiff
FS25%88 mph33% whiff
SL24%88 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
85°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.044
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.8% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-14.1% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-10.6% EV
-161
ML AWAY
-6.5% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+5.3% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
+2.2% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.1 runs
44.9% win
DET F5
1.9 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.1%
YRFI
42.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Kyle Schwarber PHI23.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI20.8%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Derek Hill PHI10.8%
ISO: 0.112 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI5 injured
Justin Crawford CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Dillon Dingler CDAY-TO-DAY
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
Cristopher Sánchez (B grade, 10.6 K/9 elite) is clearly better than Casey Mize (B grade, 9.3 K/9), yet model calls for UNDER despite hot weather (+7.9 mph wind out, +4.4% run mult) that should ADD runs; this internal contradiction suggests model confusion on weather integration.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge: Sánchez 10.6 K/9 (elite) > Mize 9.3 K/9 (good) — Sánchez slight edge, suggests tighter scoring
- Weather contradiction: 84.8°F + 8 mph out should add runs (+4.4% mult), yet model calls under
- Park neutral: Comerica Park (1.0 factor) — no suppression/inflation
- Market line reasonable: 7.5 appears fairly priced if weather-adjusted
- Zone marginal: UNDER edge +5.3% in YELLOW (50.1% WR) — no conviction
Risk Factors
- Weather impact underestimated by model: Sánchez strikeouts may be overridden by environmental runs
- Market efficiency: 7.5 may correctly reflect weather vs pitching balance
- Mize home field: Tigers at home vs road Philadelphia — could matter slightly
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 53.9%
-39.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.8 pts
Total
7.5
+5.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →