FINAL: COL 3 — SD 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 5.8 - SD 6.2 (SD at 52.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 12.0 total runs.
COL
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
SD
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSD
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (3,953 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
468
COL
468
Projected
COL 5.8 — SD 6.2
Actual
COL 3 — SD 9
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph33% whiff
CH19%86 mph24% whiff
Mason Adams R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph24% whiff
SI26%92 mph7% whiff
CU18%82 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
77°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.029
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.94ERA
3.53FIP
9.82K/9
3.69BB/9
1.20WHIP
COL
4.92ERA
4.34FIP
7.69K/9
4.30BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 5.5
-10.9% EV
+112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.6% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-9.4% EV
-164
ML HOME
+9.3% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+6.4% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
3.5 runs
45.6% win
COL F5
3.4 runs
43.1% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
39.7%
YRFI
60.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.52
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Jackson Merrill SD28.2%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Mason Adams | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD26.6%
ISO: 0.147 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Mason Adams | Park: 1.18x
Manny Machado SD24.9%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Mason Adams | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Mason Adams
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Sean Sullivan SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Goodman CDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OVER 11.0 shows 10.3% edge in Coors Field (+1.18 park factor). 11mph wind IN suppresses somewhat but model still projects 12.8 total, 1.8 runs above market line. Mason Adams (3.65 ERA) slightly outpitches Robbie Ray (3.86 ERA).
Key Factors
- Coors Field dominance: +1.18 park factor (highest in MLB), 77.4F warm supports fly ball distance
- Wind effect overestimated: 11mph in suppresses ~0.5-1.0 runs, still leaves total above line
- SP matchup slight Adams edge: 3.65 ERA vs Ray 3.86 ERA, both allow contact
- Both offenses solid: COL 6.24 home mean, SD 6.56 away mean = highest projections on slate
Risk Factors
- historically mixed totals: a supportive track record despite massive edge suggests variance risk
- Wind could suppress more than 0.5-1.0 run model assumes
- Both bullpens below average; late-game scenarios unpredictable
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 52.1%
+6.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+6.4 pts
Total
11.0
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.