SD vs LAD prediction for September 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.2 - SD 3.8. LAD is favored with a 69.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSD
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.1% (4,029 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.2 — SD 3.8
Actual
LAD 1 — SD 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph33% whiff
CH18%86 mph24% whiff
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%92 mph33% whiff
FF26%96 mph23% whiff
FC15%92 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
71°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.89ERA
3.50FIP
9.93K/9
3.80BB/9
1.21WHIP
LAD
3.90ERA
3.81FIP
10.08K/9
3.94BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.9 runs
29.8% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
55.0% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Edgardo Henriquez RP15-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.