SEA vs HOU prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.4 - SEA 3.9. HOU is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
HOU
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUSEA
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.4 — SEA 3.9
Actual
HOU 10 — SEA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%95 mph19% whiff
SI23%95 mph10% whiff
ST16%77 mph35% whiff
Hayden Wesneski R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST30%80 mph42% whiff
FF25%94 mph13% whiff
FC20%89 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
86°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.048
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.53ERA
3.90FIP
8.95K/9
3.46BB/9
1.30WHIP
HOU
3.37ERA
4.03FIP
9.26K/9
3.58BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.2 runs
39.4% win
HOU F5
2.5 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Taylor Ward LFDAY-TO-DAY
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU4 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.