FINAL: TEX 7 — SEA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 5.4 - SEA 4.5 (TEX at 56.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
TEX
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA L5TEX L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
346
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 5.4 — SEA 4.5
Actual
TEX 7 — SEA 1
Pick Results
SEA @ TEX YRFInrfiWIN+0.56u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph10% whiff
SL15%87 mph27% whiff
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS37%88 mph32% whiff
CU22%76 mph39% whiff
FC19%90 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
99°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-30.8% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+23.1% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-22.8% EV
-189
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.6% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
-12.5% EV
-116
ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.6 runs
39.0% win
TEX F5
3.0 runs
47.7% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
46.8%
YRFI
53.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA28.7%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, B grade, 8.6 K/9, elite stuff) vs Bryan Woo (SEA, B grade, 8.7 K/9, nearly identical) — even SP matchup, but market prices OVER at +23.1% edge (62.2% model prob vs implied 44%) — one of slate's cleanest environmental plays; scorching 98.8F heat (highest excluding OAK), outdoor Globe Life (retractable, likely open), slight wind 2.6mph helps scoring; model 9.84 vs 7.5 market = +2.34 run gap.
Key Factors
- Temperature 98.8F EXTREME (highest non-OAK on slate) — adds 1.2+ runs per weather model
- Globe Life retractable roof likely OPEN (outdoor) in extreme heat — no AC suppression
- SP match: Eovaldi 8.6 K/9 vs Woo 8.7 K/9 — virtually identical (both B-grade, near 9.0 K/9)
- Model 9.84 vs market 7.5 = 2.34 run GAP — largest gap on slate after LAA @ SF (2.05 gap)
- HR mult 1.071 (highest on slate except OAK) — fly balls carry significantly in 98F heat
Risk Factors
- High edge (23.1%) historically shows WORST WR per calibration — major overconfidence warning
- historical support WR 50.1% suggests model-market gap may be overestimated
- 98F heat is predictable, but Globe Life roof status unknown (if closed, suppresses scoring dramatically)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 56.1%
-22.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-22.8 pts
Total
7.5
+23.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.