SF vs ARI prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.8 - SF 5.1. ARI is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
ARI
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SF
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISF
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (2,717 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI36%93 mph9% whiff
CU27%77 mph36% whiff
CH20%87 mph31% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
SI21%93 mph9% whiff
CU21%82 mph36% whiff
FF20%94 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
98°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.004
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-28.8% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.4% EV
-182
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.0% EV
+150
ML AWAY
-13.2% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-104
ML HOME
+6.2% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.0 runs
46.5% win
ARI F5
2.9 runs
40.4% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
48.1%
YRFI
51.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE58.2% WR (n=11)
Landen Roupp (SF away, 4.40 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 44.9%) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI home, 7.3 K/9, 18.1% K rate, C+ 39.3%). Market prices both equal at -107/-107 (51.7% either side) despite ARI home field advantage. Model favors ARI home at 56.7% (6.2% edge). This is asymmetry: Market not pricing home field. ARI home (56.7% prob vs 51.7% market) = 5pp undervalue. Chase Field (1.06 park factor, slight HR boost) + 98.4°F extremely hot + 11.6 mph wind IN (-10.2 tail wind) = complex weather. Hot temperature increases HR probability but wind kills it. Net effect: 1.004 total multiplier = +0.04 runs (neutral). Zone: Home ML YELLOW (56.3% WR, 10-15% edge bucket shows 69.9% WR, n=7 tiny). Combo GREEN (59.3% WR, n=82). RECOMMENDATION: LEAN ARI home at -107 (0.75 units) despite Pfaadt mediocre grade (C+). Home field + market pricing error = actionable lean.
Key Factors
- Roupp (SF, 4.40 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 44.9%) vs Pfaadt (ARI, 7.3 K/9, 18.1% K rate, C+ 39.3%) = Roupp advantage but minimal
- ARI home field (56.7% vs 51.7% market) = 5pp undervalue by market
- Chase Field (1.06 park factor) slight HR boost but 98.4°F + 11.6 mph wind IN cancels = net neutral
- Market -107 ARI = unusual even juice, suggests market hedging ARI home
- Combo GREEN (59.3% WR, n=82) validates home lean
Risk Factors
- Zone YELLOW (58.2% WR, n=11 small sample) not GREEN
- Pfaadt grade C+ is weak — unreliable pitcher
- Hot weather + wind complexity makes line harder to calculate
HOME FIELD UNDERVALUED 5PPMARKET EVEN JUICE UNUSUALCOMBO GREEN HOMELEAN VALUE PRESENTREDUCED UNITS CAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 56.7%
-27.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.4 pts
Total
9.0
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →