SF vs ATL — September 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is -1.5 with a total of 9.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
ATL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSF
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Molina R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%96 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph22% whiff
CU15%84 mph44% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%91 mph11% whiff
SL23%83 mph27% whiff
FF22%92 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
94°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.73ERA
4.49FIP
7.37K/9
4.42BB/9
1.48WHIP
ATL
3.03ERA
3.33FIP
9.72K/9
3.25BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
35.4% win
ATL F5
2.2 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.