SF vs LAD prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.6 - SF 4.0. LAD is favored with a 71.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
LAD
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSF
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.7% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
LAD
468
Projected
LAD 5.6 — SF 4.0
Actual
LAD 3 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%90 mph15% whiff
CH22%84 mph18% whiff
SL13%79 mph10% whiff
Jack Dreyer L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph25% whiff
SL37%89 mph30% whiff
CU16%81 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
78°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.036
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.60ERA
4.70FIP
7.03K/9
4.46BB/9
1.50WHIP
LAD
3.96ERA
3.85FIP
10.06K/9
3.94BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.2 runs
31.8% win
LAD F5
3.2 runs
54.2% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.7%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Bryce Eldridge DHDAY-TO-DAY
Reiver Sanmartin RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Furman 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Tarik Skubal SPBEREAVEMENT
Kyle Tucker RFDAY-TO-DAY
Shohei Ohtani DH15-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.