SF vs SEA prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.1 - SF 4.6. SF is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
SEA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SF
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASF
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
SEA
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF37%93 mph17% whiff
SL27%86 mph32% whiff
CH16%86 mph24% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF39%96 mph20% whiff
SL23%86 mph34% whiff
FS14%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
71°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.4% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-17.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.7% EV
+146
ML HOME
-14.1% EV
-159
F5_ML AWAY
+11.2% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.5 runs
46.1% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
39.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
19%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA7 injured
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE39.6% WR (n=8)
Logan Webb (SF) disastrous form (C+ stuff, C command, 7.8 K/9, N/A ERA) vs Bryan Woo (SEA) solid B-grade arm (7.8% K/9, command A-, 0.567 overall score). Massive SP mismatch favoring SEA. 13.3% ML edge on away underdog in pitcher-favorable park (0.89 factor). Cleanest directional call on slate.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH (CRITICAL): Logan Webb (SF) C+ stuff, C command, 7.8 K/9, N/A ERA is a back-end arm in poor form. Bryan Woo (SEA) B-grade overall, command A-, 8.7 K/9, decent form. 1+ point K/9 gap is significant.
- Webb grades: overall C+, stuff C, command B. Woo: overall B, stuff C+, command A-. Woo's command superiority is decisive.
- T-Mobile Park 0.89 factor (pitcher-friendly). 71.4°F cool, neutral wind (-4.6). Suppresses totals, favors pitchers (Woo benefits).
- SF lineup weak vs RHP (limited power). SEA lineup moderate. Pitcher advantage dominates.
- 13.3% ML edge (48.9% model vs 43.1% market implied) is substantial. Road underdog in favorable situation.
Risk Factors
- Zone WR 39.6% on away underdogs at 10-15% edge is concerning — worse than 50% baseline. Small sample (n=8) but negative signal.
- SF may have better lineup depth than model estimates. Bryce Eldridge (30% HR prob) is power threat.
- Webb could outpitch model estimates if he settles in early. Pitcher-favorable park means one early mistake is survivable.
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEPARK FACTORAWAY UNDERDOG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.5%
-16.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.7 pts
Total
7.0
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →