STL vs CHC prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.7 - STL 3.8. CHC is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
CHC
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.7 — STL 3.8
Actual
CHC 4 — STL 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph13% whiff
SL17%88 mph21% whiff
ST15%82 mph23% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH30%93 mph27% whiff
SI22%96 mph6% whiff
CU19%85 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
83°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.25ERA
4.40FIP
7.83K/9
4.27BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
4.01ERA
4.56FIP
8.98K/9
3.93BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
38.0% win
CHC F5
2.6 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.