STL vs PHI prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.4 - STL 4.5. PHI is favored with a 51.4% win probability. PHI wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHISTL
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (3,472 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
346
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.4 — STL 4.5
Actual
PHI 7 — STL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph14% whiff
SL17%88 mph21% whiff
ST15%82 mph23% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph46% whiff
FF25%97 mph13% whiff
SI19%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.005
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.27ERA
4.36FIP
7.99K/9
4.25BB/9
1.35WHIP
PHI
4.40ERA
3.86FIP
10.34K/9
3.66BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
40.4% win
PHI F5
2.4 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.