TB vs SEA prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.8 - TB 3.1. SEA is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TB
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATB
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.8 — TB 3.1
Actual
SEA 1 — TB 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph34% whiff
CH23%91 mph39% whiff
SI21%96 mph10% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST29%87 mph26% whiff
FF29%97 mph20% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
81°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.005
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.50ERA
3.89FIP
9.02K/9
2.92BB/9
1.11WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.89FIP
9.01K/9
3.38BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.5 runs
31.9% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
49.3% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
64.7%
YRFI
35.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market has this one priced almost perfectly given two near-identical starters and a well-known pitcher's park - only the F5_ML signal offers a sliver of value.
Key Factors
- Kirby (home) 4.06 ERA and Jax (away) 4.04 ERA are essentially identical - true coin-flip SP matchup
- T-Mobile Park factor is 0.89, a strong run suppressor, but the market total (7.0) already reflects this (total edge just -0.03)
- F5_ML home edge is 8.4% (model 58.3%) - the one standout signal, suggesting Kirby may have a better early-innings profile than the full-game number shows
- ML and total edges are both negligible (<1%) across the board
Risk Factors
- Essentially no edge anywhere except F5_ML, which alone isn't enough to build full conviction
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.