FINAL: ARI 2 — TEX 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 4.4 - TEX 3.5 (ARI at 63.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
ARI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARITEX
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX L4ARI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.9% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
245
ARI
246
Projected
ARI 4.4 — TEX 3.5
Actual
ARI 2 — TEX 6
Pick Results
ARI MLmlLOSS-0.75u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL38%83 mph40% whiff
SI30%94 mph8% whiff
FC14%90 mph20% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph11% whiff
SI16%93 mph9% whiff
CH16%87 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
102°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.085 Total: 1.044
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.34ERA
4.50FIP
8.43K/9
3.77BB/9
1.33WHIP
ARI
3.22ERA
3.49FIP
8.06K/9
3.00BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
-13.1% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-12.9% EV
+113
NRFI YRFI
-12.8% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-8.5% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.3% EV
+162
ML HOME
+7.0% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
31.3% win
ARI F5
2.7 runs
52.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX28.5%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI24.5%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI5 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
ARI home projects at 63.0% WP against a market implying only 55.2% (-123), a +7.8% ML edge. Brandon Pfaadt (3.81 ERA, 64.5% command grade) is meaningfully better than Kumar Rocker (4.98 ERA, 51.4% command grade) — a 1.17 run ERA gap favoring the home starter. This edge lands cleanly historically well-supported for home favorites.
Key Factors
- Pitcher ERA gap +1.17: Pfaadt 3.81 vs Rocker 4.98 = meaningful structural SP advantage for ARI
- Home favorite historically well-supported: 54.9% historical WR strongly validates the +7-8% edge bucket
- Extreme heat neutralized: 102.2F is mitigated by the retractable, likely-closed Chase Field roof (park factor 1.0, no wind wildcard)
- F5_ML +5.5% edge confirms ARI should establish an early lead before TEX can respond
Risk Factors
- Rocker has occasional strong outings (4.98 season ERA can mask a good individual start)
- TEX lineup carries real power threats (Corey Seager 30% HR prob, Joc Pederson 28.5% HR prob)
- If the game extends to extras, extreme heat could equally fatigue both bullpens
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 63.0%
+7.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.3 pts
Total
8.0
+0.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.