TEX vs MIN prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.7 - TEX 4.1. TEX is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
MIN
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TEX
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINTEX
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 3.7 — TEX 4.1
Actual
MIN 10 — TEX 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL35%91 mph37% whiff
CH14%90 mph45% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%94 mph21% whiff
ST16%80 mph37% whiff
FS12%88 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
64°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.29ERA
4.47FIP
8.47K/9
3.77BB/9
1.32WHIP
MIN
4.41ERA
4.09FIP
9.30K/9
4.12BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.3 runs
44.6% win
MIN F5
2.0 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Cal Quantrill RP60-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DH10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Michel Otanez RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LF10-DAY-IL
Kaelen Culpepper SS10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.