TEX vs OAK prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.4 - TEX 5.4. OAK is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
OAK
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TEX
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTEX
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.7% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 5.4 — TEX 5.4
Actual
OAK 8 — TEX 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%95 mph21% whiff
CU19%82 mph28% whiff
CH12%86 mph40% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%94 mph21% whiff
CH20%88 mph34% whiff
FC17%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.19ERA
4.29FIP
8.33K/9
3.79BB/9
1.35WHIP
OAK
5.20ERA
4.36FIP
9.78K/9
4.36BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.6 runs
35.8% win
OAK F5
3.2 runs
51.4% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Justin Sterner RP15-DAY-IL
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.