TOR vs CHC prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.0 - TOR 5.3. TOR is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
CHC
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TOR
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCTOR
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
357
CHC
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF34%98 mph25% whiff
SL30%89 mph44% whiff
CH12%84 mph62% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF43%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
66°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-43.5% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.4% EV
-189
F5 OVER 3.5
+19.1% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+18.7% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-7.8% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-4.7% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.9 runs
45.5% win
CHC F5
2.7 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
53.7%
YRFI
46.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Ernie Clement 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
Massive OVER edge (+18.7% on total, 64.2% model prob) despite low market total (7.0) — this is a classic high-K pitcher duel (Cease 13.6% K-rate vs Imanaga 8.8%) creating lower strikeout rate overall. Model sees 10.35 runs; market at 7.0 is extreme underestimate. Wrigley Field wind slight boost (+1.028 mult).
Key Factors
- Both SPs are quality arms (Cease B stuff, Imanaga B stuff) but Cease's elite K-rate (13.6%) creates more swings-and-misses, NOT fewer runs
- Market logic inverted: high-K pitchers vs good hitters = MORE offense, not less. K pitching can't suppress runs if they allow hits
- Wrigley Field 65.6F cool (neutral for wind boost) but park known for overs; +1.028 mult on 4.9 mph tail wind = +0.3 run boost
- F5 OVER also has +19.1% edge (63.4% model prob) — early-game confirmation
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone on high-edge totals (50.1% WR, n=222) — historical data shows overconfidence risk on 15%+ edge totals
- Market at 7.0 is deliberately low, suggests sharp consensus sees this as under play — may reflect recent bullpen-heavy usage
TOTALS VALUEHIGH K MATCHUPUNDER SUPPRESSIONYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 50.3%
-36.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.4 pts
Total
7.0
+18.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →