FINAL: SD 3 — TOR 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.0 - TOR 3.0 (SD at 50.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
SD
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDTOR
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.0 — TOR 3.0
Actual
SD 3 — TOR 5
Pick Results
SD F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF46%94 mph16% whiff
FS30%83 mph40% whiff
SL24%88 mph35% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph19% whiff
FF22%94 mph10% whiff
SI16%94 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
69°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.994
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-44.7% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.8% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+35.7% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.8% EV
+100
NRFI NRFI
+16.8% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.7 runs
40.9% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Randy Vasquez SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.7%
-37.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.8 pts
Total
8.5
+35.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →