WSH vs OAK prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.8 - WSH 6.0. WSH is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
OAK
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
WSH
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKWSH
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,910 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
468
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.8 — WSH 6.0
Actual
OAK 15 — WSH 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph19% whiff
FF17%92 mph18% whiff
ST15%80 mph30% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%91 mph14% whiff
SL30%77 mph21% whiff
FC20%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
61°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.989
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
3.3 runs
51.4% win
OAK F5
2.6 runs
36.7% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Jake Irvin SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mikolas SPSUSPENSION
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Zack Littell (WSH) 5.29 ERA, weak stuff (D), mediocre command (B+) is dominated by J.T. Ginn (OAK) competent arm (C+, balanced). 3.2% ML edge on WSH away; NRFI edge (9.5%, 44.2% prob) is cleaner. Lean on NRFI, avoid weak ML.
Key Factors
- SP MISMATCH against WSH: Zack Littell (WSH) 5.29 ERA, stuff D (worst grade on slate), K-rate 14.8%. J.T. Ginn (OAK) C+, balanced (SI 34.8%, CH 19.7%), K-rate 21.6%. Ginn dominates Littell.
- Oakland Coliseum 60.8°F (coldest game on slate!), 8.0 mph wind IN (-5.0). Cold suppresses runs and HR distance significantly.
- NRFI historically well-supported — most reliable edge on slate. 9.5% edge (44.2% prob NRFI) is actionable.
- ML edge (3.2% on WSH) is weak. Don't bet directionless MLS; focus on NRFI prop.
- James Wood (WSH) 30% HR prob but cold weather mitigates. Oakland's cold park is pitcher-friendly.
Risk Factors
- NRFI prop is specialist bet type. Playability limited.
- Littell's D-grade stuff might actually help NRFI (hard contact plays, but first inning is short sample).
- Cold 60.8°F does suppress runs, helping UNDER (model 10.7 vs market 11.5), but NRFI is the real value play.
PITCHER MISMATCHNRFI VALUECOLD WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 55.2%
-40.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.5 pts
Total
11.5
+4.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.