FINAL: LAD 2 — ARI 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 5.2 - ARI 3.5 (LAD at 59.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADARI
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARI W5LAD L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
245
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.2 — ARI 3.5
Actual
LAD 2 — ARI 9
Pick Results
ARI @ LAD NRFInrfiWIN+0.43u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Gallen R
ARI
FF37%93 mph6% whiff
SL21%89 mph29% whiff
KC18%82 mph22% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF43%94 mph25% whiff
SL31%87 mph39% whiff
CH16%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.003
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.7% EV
+104
ML AWAY
+15.9% EV
+225
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.5% EV
-115
ML HOME
-12.5% EV
-278
F5_ML HOME
-6.8% EV
-278
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+4.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.0 runs
27.8% win
LAD F5
3.3 runs
58.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Gallen
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Ryan Waldschmidt CFDAY-TO-DAY
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2DATA_FAILURE ZONE
CRITICAL: Simulation uses Zac Gallen (ARI SP) with stale pitcher data; injury report confirms Gallen OUT (Elbow). Replacement pitcher unknown. Game cannot be responsibly analyzed without confirmed starter identity — DATA_INTEGRITY failure flagged as STRONG AVOID.
Key Factors
- DATA FAILURE: Zac Gallen (ARI SP) listed as OUT (Elbow) in injury report but sim uses him as healthy
- Replacement unknown: ARI backup SP unknown — cannot model game without confirmed starter
- Sim staleness: Cache may be stale by 6-12 hours if pulled before morning injury updates
Risk Factors
- Replacement pitcher could be TBD or bullpen game — massive uncertainty
- Market pricing likely reflects Gallen status — sharp money knows he's OUT
- Potential for split squad or schedule change if Gallen OUT confirmed
DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHERSPRING TRAINING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 59.7%
-1.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.8 pts
Total
8.5
+4.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →