FINAL: NYY 5 — ATL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 3.7 - ATL 3.8 (NYY at 50.5% win probability). NYY wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
NYY
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYATL
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 3.7 — ATL 3.8
Actual
NYY 5 — ATL 4
Pick Results
ATL @ NYY NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph23% whiff
SL39%79 mph38% whiff
CH12%88 mph30% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph24% whiff
CH14%86 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
91°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.048
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.83ERA
3.29FIP
9.68K/9
3.14BB/9
1.09WHIP
NYY
2.89ERA
3.87FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.7% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-12.5% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-8.8% EV
-112
ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-145
ML HOME
+5.9% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
+4.8% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.1 runs
43.7% win
NYY F5
2.0 runs
39.7% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
9%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.304 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY29.6%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Chris Sale | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Sale
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
NYY5 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.5%
+2.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.