NYM vs PIT prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.0 - NYM 3.3. PIT is favored with a 62.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
PIT
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITNYM
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 5.0 — NYM 3.3
Actual
PIT 9 — NYM 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC38%90 mph19% whiff
SI24%94 mph31% whiff
FF19%96 mph23% whiff
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph19% whiff
SL21%91 mph28% whiff
CH16%92 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.44ERA
4.28FIP
9.11K/9
4.13BB/9
1.41WHIP
PIT
3.44ERA
3.63FIP
9.91K/9
4.11BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.8 runs
29.6% win
PIT F5
2.9 runs
55.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Carson Benge RFDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT4 injured
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.