TOR vs PHI prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.5 - TOR 3.4. PHI is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
PHI
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITOR
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
PHI
346
Projected
PHI 4.5 — TOR 3.4
Actual
PHI 5 — TOR 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL22%86 mph19% whiff
CH16%84 mph18% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph11% whiff
SI19%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
89°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.079 Total: 1.043
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.23ERA
3.87FIP
7.77K/9
3.98BB/9
1.32WHIP
PHI
4.38ERA
3.80FIP
10.49K/9
3.53BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
31.3% win
PHI F5
2.8 runs
53.8% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Painter SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.