OAK vs BOS prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.6 - OAK 4.6. BOS is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
BOS
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSOAK
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
BOS
468
Projected
BOS 5.6 — OAK 4.6
Actual
BOS 3 — OAK 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph21% whiff
SL23%87 mph28% whiff
CU12%82 mph20% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph20% whiff
SI26%92 mph6% whiff
CH25%83 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
92°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.087 Total: 1.047
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.05ERA
4.41FIP
9.70K/9
4.36BB/9
1.51WHIP
BOS
3.27ERA
3.48FIP
9.71K/9
3.09BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.4 runs
34.3% win
BOS F5
3.2 runs
51.4% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Wilyer Abreu RFDAY-TO-DAY
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.