FINAL: TEX 5 — BAL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.4 - BAL 3.8 (TEX at 55.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
TEX
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALTEX L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.4 — BAL 3.8
Actual
TEX 5 — BAL 1
Pick Results
BAL @ TEX NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%95 mph9% whiff
SL26%87 mph33% whiff
CU22%85 mph40% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph36% whiff
CH13%90 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
82°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.047
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.31ERA
4.00FIP
8.59K/9
3.74BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
4.36ERA
4.38FIP
8.35K/9
3.64BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.0% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-6.5% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-5.8% EV
+128
F5_ML HOME
-4.9% EV
-161
ML HOME
-3.0% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-2.5% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.0 runs
34.7% win
TEX F5
2.6 runs
49.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.071 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 1.02x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 1.02x
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPPATERNITY
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 55.6%
+0.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.1 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.