CIN vs WSH prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 3.8 - CIN 4.2. CIN is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
WSH
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHCIN
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 3.8 — CIN 4.2
Actual
WSH 8 — CIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%98 mph15% whiff
SL38%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph29% whiff
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU29%83 mph32% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL25%84 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
95°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.092 Total: 1.050
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.26ERA
4.96FIP
8.67K/9
4.81BB/9
1.39WHIP
WSH
5.41ERA
5.12FIP
8.77K/9
4.69BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.1 runs
41.0% win
WSH F5
2.0 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Hunter Greene SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
+1 more
WSH8 injured
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.