FINAL: MIL 4 — MIN 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 4.7 - MIN 3.4 (MIL at 61.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
MIL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILMIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 4.7 — MIN 3.4
Actual
MIL 4 — MIN 3
Pick Results
MIL F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%97 mph13% whiff
FC24%90 mph34% whiff
FS20%91 mph32% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%80 mph28% whiff
SI25%92 mph11% whiff
FF23%92 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
83°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.041
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.13ERA
3.89FIP
9.16K/9
3.90BB/9
1.36WHIP
MIL
3.46ERA
3.65FIP
9.25K/9
3.74BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-18.7% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-10.6% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-10.2% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
+6.5% EV
-132
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
+126
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.1% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.9 runs
31.8% win
MIL F5
2.9 runs
53.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Ryan Jeffers MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Taj Bradley | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Taj Bradley
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Zebby Matthews SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SPDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 61.6%
+5.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.1 pts
Total
8.0
+1.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.