FINAL: CIN 5 — BAL 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 3.2 - BAL 4.4 (BAL at 61.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
CIN
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINBAL
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W4CIN
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
CIN
135
Projected
CIN 3.2 — BAL 4.4
Actual
CIN 5 — BAL 8
Pick Results
BAL F5 MLf5_mlWIN+1.14u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF41%94 mph18% whiff
FS21%85 mph22% whiff
SL14%84 mph42% whiff
Hunter Greene R
CIN
FF54%100 mph20% whiff
SL35%90 mph44% whiff
FS11%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
93°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.008
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.8% EV
+155
F5_ML HOME
-28.3% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-28.1% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
+23.7% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-20.7% EV
-192
ML HOME
-20.0% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
53.3% win
CIN F5
1.7 runs
32.1% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Hunter Greene | Park: 1.08x
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Hunter Greene | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Hunter Greene | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Greene
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN6 injured
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Dane Myers CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE43.3% WR (n=155)
Currently in progress (BAL 8, CIN 4 late). Model gave BAL away 55.3% prob ML with +15% edge — EXTREMELY HIGH EDGE that triggers historical WORST WR pattern (RED zone: 43.3% WR, n=155 on away ML bets). This is an overconfidence trap. Under edge (16.6%) also excessive (YELLOW zone, 50.1% WR). Both bets fail the edge-sanity check. BLOCK.
Key Factors
- BAL away ML: +15% edge places this in RED zone (43.3% WR historically on away ML bets)
- Hunter Greene (CIN, B+, 30.9% K rate, 6.5% BB rate) is elite; Brandon Young (BAL, C+, 17.9% K rate, 8.7% BB rate) is mediocre
- Under 9.5 edge +16.6% exceeds MAX_EDGE_CAP (8.0% for ML) — model is crying overconfidence
- CIN park factor 1.08 + hot weather (93.4°F, 5.7mph in) = slight under lean, but not 16.6% under lean
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 15%+ edge in away ML zone produces 43.3% WR (LOSS-MAKING)
- Model contradicts SP quality comparison (Greene >> Young) with extreme edge — logical inconsistency
- Calibration capped ML edges at 8.0% for exactly this reason; model overrode it
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEPITCHER ADVANTAGEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 61.8%
-28.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.8 pts
Total
9.5
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →