DET vs TEX prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.4 - DET 4.5. TEX is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
TEX
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXDET
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.4 — DET 4.5
Actual
TEX 0 — DET 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%93 mph16% whiff
SL25%85 mph29% whiff
KC19%78 mph35% whiff
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
FC31%88 mph13% whiff
SI29%94 mph22% whiff
FF18%94 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
98°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.1% EV
-156
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.3% EV
+130
ML AWAY
-10.7% EV
-123
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.9% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-5.2% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.7 runs
44.4% win
TEX F5
2.6 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
45.2%
YRFI
54.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Cal Quantrill
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1N/A ZONE
Game complete: DET shut out TEX 3-0. Model gave home (TEX) 50.7% prob on ML (+4.4% edge)—model was DEAD WRONG. Flaherty (away, B-, 10.8 K/9) crushed Quantrill (home, B-, 6.2 K/9). Away pitcher significantly better but model favored home.
Key Factors
- Jack Flaherty (away, B-, 10.8 K/9) >> Cal Quantrill (home, B-, 6.2 K/9)—elite K/BB edge to visitor
- Shutout result (3-0) confirms total lean; model projected 8.87 total, market 8.5 ✓
- DET bullpen (4.22 ERA) solid; TEX bullpen (3.6 ERA) better but couldn't recover after poor Quantrill start
Risk Factors
- Model underweighted SP quality gap despite visible K/9 differential
GAME COMPLETESP MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 53.5%
-28.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.1 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →