MIN vs NYY prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.1 - MIN 6.5. MIN is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 12.6 total runs.
NYY
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
MIN
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYMIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
568
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 6.1 — MIN 6.5
Actual
NYY 4 — MIN 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph36% whiff
CU14%79 mph36% whiff
Brendan Beck R
NYY
FF56%92 mph0% whiff
SL35%83 mph43% whiff
CU6%76 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
101°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 0.999
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 5.5
+30.2% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-28.9% EV
-149
F5_ML AWAY
+26.3% EV
+120
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.0% EV
-156
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
-21.3% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 10.0
+12.0% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
4.7 runs
56.4% win
NYY F5
3.5 runs
34.2% win
F5 Total
8.1
NRFI
37.3%
YRFI
62.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.8
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
3%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Brendan Beck | Park: 1.10x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Brendan Beck | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Kreidler MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Brendan Beck | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Brendan Beck
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2N/A ZONE
Game completed with shocking result (MIN 11, NYY 4, 6 HRs). Model gave away only 47.2% prob on MIN—massive model FAILURE. Beck (D-grade home SP) got shelled; model underestimated away lean despite Matthews' B- grade.
Key Factors
- Brendan Beck (D-grade starter, 0% K rate, 23.1% BB rate) = major DATA INTEGRITY issue; likely not a real SP
- Zebby Matthews (B- grade, 20.1% K rate, 5.2% BB rate) vastly superior
- MIN's 6 HRs suggest lineup destruction of poor home pitching; Yankees missing Aaron Judge (10-day IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL)
Risk Factors
- Model flagged Beck as D-grade but didn't downgrade confidence sufficiently
- Road team (MIN) beating heavily favored home team (NYY -147) = classic upset not priced
GAME COMPLETEMODEL FAILUREDATA INTEGRITYD GRADE SP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.6%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
10.0
+12.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →