FINAL: CHC 0 — STL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 4.0 - STL 2.8 (CHC at 66.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STLCHC L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.8% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 4.0 — STL 2.8
Actual
CHC 0 — STL 3
Pick Results
CHC -1.5run_lineLOSS-0.50u
Shota Imanaga OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
SL22%86 mph34% whiff
CU17%80 mph32% whiff
Javier Assad R
CHC
SI40%93 mph7% whiff
FF18%93 mph13% whiff
FC15%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
70°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.033
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.8% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-31.0% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-22.9% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+20.8% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-14.9% EV
+134
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.6% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.3 runs
26.1% win
CHC F5
2.5 runs
57.8% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Javier Assad
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE57.3% WR (n=32)
Game in progress (STL 1, CHC 0). Model gives home CHC +3.7% edge on ML (63.6% prob), which is modest but reasonable. STRONG edge on under: +20.8% (64.6% prob, 20.8% edge!) = TEXTBOOK OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP per calibration history. However, Javier Assad (home, C+, 5.7% K rate) vs Matthew Liberatore (away, B-, 21.8% K rate) shows away SP advantage. Model favored home on ML; should've favored away based on SP. UNDER is the play but with extreme caution on the 20.8% edge (YELLOW zone, 50.1% WR = coin flip).
Key Factors
- Matthew Liberatore (away, B-, 21.8% K rate, 8.8% BB rate) >>> Javier Assad (home, C+, 5.7% K rate, 6.3% BB rate) on SP quality
- +20.8% under edge is extreme (calibration cap is 8% for ML, 20% for totals max) — reeks of overconfidence
- Cool weather (70°F) + 6mph out wind = SLIGHT OVER lean per park factor (1.03), but model callsunder strongly
- Early 1-0 score (STL leading late) aligns with under lean, but small sample
Risk Factors
- 20.8% edge triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING per calibration logic
- SP quality (away) contradicts home favorite home ML call
- YELLOW zone on totals = 50.1% WR = model offers no edge here
HIGH EDGE WARNINGUNDER VALUEGREEN ZONEPITCHER ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 66.7%
+10.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.6 pts
Total
8.0
+20.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →