FINAL: WSH 1 — PIT 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 4.2 - PIT 6.8 (PIT at 71.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
WSH
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
PIT
6.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHPIT
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.3% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
579
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.2 — PIT 6.8
Actual
WSH 1 — PIT 7
Pick Results
PIT -1.5run_lineWIN+0.94u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF31%97 mph15% whiff
CU26%85 mph41% whiff
SL23%92 mph32% whiff
Carson Palmquist L
WSH
FF49%90 mph9% whiff
ST30%74 mph34% whiff
FC13%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
100°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.2% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-26.8% EV
+136
ML HOME
-21.3% EV
+134
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+14.5% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
+9.0% EV
-172
F5 OVER 5.5
+8.3% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.9 runs
63.6% win
WSH F5
2.1 runs
25.0% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
43.2%
YRFI
56.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.32
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.8
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
2%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Carson Palmquist
Bryan Reynolds PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Carson Palmquist | Platoon: 1.12x
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Carson Palmquist | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Carson Palmquist
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
WSH8 injured
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1N/A ZONE
Model correctly favored away (Ashcraft over Palmquist) and won decisively (7-1 final), but this game is COMPLETE—no betting action remains.
Key Factors
- Braxton Ashcraft (B-grade SP, 3.6 ERA) >> Carson Palmquist (C-grade, 2.25 ERA)—quality mismatch favored away
- Final 7-1 confirmed model's away lean at +8.2% edge
- Palmquist's low ERA belied by C-grade command; Ashcraft's B-grade stuff exploited home pitcher's limitations
Risk Factors
- Game resolved; historical only
GAME COMPLETEMODEL CORRECT ON DIRECTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 71.3%
-49.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.2 pts
Total
10.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →