TB vs HOU prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.2 - TB 3.9. TB is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
HOU
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TB
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTB
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
HOU
135
Projected
HOU 3.2 — TB 3.9
Actual
HOU 10 — TB 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC32%90 mph23% whiff
FF27%96 mph23% whiff
SI22%96 mph11% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
FF33%96 mph22% whiff
SI28%96 mph11% whiff
KC20%83 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
92°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.0% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-16.6% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-112
ML HOME
-9.2% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+7.8% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+5.3% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
44.0% win
HOU F5
1.6 runs
37.1% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB18.4%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x
Isaac Paredes HOU17.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Raynel Delgado 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=301)
Game in progress (TB 8, HOU 5 late). Model gives away (TB) +1.8% edge on ML (52% prob) — razor-thin edge. Under edge +7.8% (54.4% prob) is modest. Both pitchers B/B- grade (Brown vs Rasmussen), slight edge to Rasmussen (away, B-grade command, 26.4% K rate). NEUTRAL. Lean possible on under but not strong. SKIP given wafer-thin ML and modest under.
Key Factors
- Drew Rasmussen (away, B, 26.4% K rate, 4.5% BB rate) slightly better than Hunter Brown (home, B-, 29.9% K rate, 12.6% BB rate) due to control
- +7.8% under edge modest; park (1.0) neutral; weather neutral (92.5°F, slight out wind)
Risk Factors
- Extremely narrow edges suggest model cannot differentiate; market is efficient
NEUTRAL GAME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 54.0%
-41.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.0 pts
Total
7.0
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →