TOR vs SEA prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.6 - TOR 3.0. SEA is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
SEA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATOR
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.6 — TOR 3.0
Actual
SEA 11 — TOR 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Bieber R
TOR
FF34%92 mph18% whiff
SL20%85 mph36% whiff
KC18%83 mph25% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF38%96 mph20% whiff
SL23%86 mph35% whiff
FS14%81 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
66°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.991
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.6% EV
-154
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.2% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.6% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-14.2% EV
+136
ML AWAY
-4.4% EV
+138
ML HOME
-3.6% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.5 runs
29.7% win
SEA F5
2.4 runs
54.5% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Colt Emerson SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.370 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Shane Bieber | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Shane Bieber | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Shane Bieber | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Bieber
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
George Springer DHPATERNITY
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALN/A ZONE
Game complete: SEA 11, TOR 0. Model slightly undervalued home (59.9% prob, -3.6% ML edge vs market 62.1%), but the 11-0 demolition suggests Gilbert was elite and Bieber was atrocious. Model's under lean on TOTAL (57.8% prob to UNDER 7.5, +15.6% edge) was perfectly aligned with 6 total runs. Win.
Key Factors
- Logan Gilbert (home, B-grade, 9.3 K/9, 26.9% K rate) = ace-level performance (1 H, 7.33 IP)
- Shane Bieber (away, B-, 21.7% K rate, 0 ERA anomaly?) = weaker than Gilbert; TOR's offense muted
- Park factor (0.89 SEA) + cool weather (66.2°F) = under-friendly; model correctly incorporated
Risk Factors
- Bieber's 0 ERA anomaly suggests data quality issue (likely new pitcher or relief start); actual performance much worse
GAME COMPLETEUNDER VALUEPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 59.7%
-2.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.7 pts
Total
7.5
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →