NYM vs ATL prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.1 - NYM 3.6. ATL is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
ATL
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 4.1 — NYM 3.6
Actual
ATL 14 — NYM 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI35%95 mph14% whiff
FF19%96 mph24% whiff
ST17%85 mph22% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
SI32%89 mph9% whiff
CH32%82 mph30% whiff
FC23%85 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
92°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.1% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.3% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-13.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+10.0% EV
-112
ML HOME
-7.2% EV
-185
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.1% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.0 runs
38.1% win
ATL F5
2.3 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=167)
Game in progress (ATL 5, NYM 0 late). Model gave home (ATL) -7.2% edge on ML (market priced it correctly at 60.3%). Under edge +10% (58.2% prob) is moderate. ATL's Martín Pérez (C+, 7.4 K rate) vs NYM's Nolan McLean (B, 10.4 K rate) — AWAY has SP advantage (McLean >> Pérez) but model favored home. This is a contrarian model call that failed; ATL is winning but McLean was superior. SKIP for future bets; game in progress.
Key Factors
- Nolan McLean (away, B-grade, 10.4 K rate, 9.0% BB rate) >> Martín Pérez (home, C+, 7.4 K rate, 9.3% BB rate) in SP quality
- Model favored home despite clear away SP advantage — logic error
- Under edge +10% appropriate given park (1.0), weather (92°F, wind in) — this was the better play
Risk Factors
- Model's home favorite call contradicts SP quality assessment — PITCHER_ATTRIBUTION_RULE violated
MODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 58.5%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
8.0
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →