FINAL: COL 1 — BAL 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 6.7 - BAL 7.3 (COL at 50.2% win probability). COL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 14.1 total runs.
COL
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
BAL
7.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLBAL
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL L4COL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
579
COL
579
Projected
COL 6.7 — BAL 7.3
Actual
COL 1 — BAL 2
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Povich L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%92 mph15% whiff
CU21%76 mph39% whiff
SL14%86 mph30% whiff
Tanner Gordon R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%93 mph18% whiff
SL22%87 mph21% whiff
CH22%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
82°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.033
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.14ERA
3.80FIP
8.70K/9
3.66BB/9
1.31WHIP
COL
4.55ERA
4.21FIP
7.79K/9
4.10BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 5.5
+13.2% EV
-128
NRFI NRFI
-10.6% EV
+112
F5_ML HOME
-7.9% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 11.0
+6.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-4.8% EV
-147
ML AWAY
-4.0% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
4.3 runs
48.6% win
COL F5
3.9 runs
41.1% win
F5 Total
8.2
NRFI
41.0%
YRFI
59.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.52
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
3%
Coby Mayo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Mickey Moniak COL25.5%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Povich
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Gordon
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Pete Alonso 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Ryan Feltner SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Coors' 1.18 park factor combined with two below-average starters (Gordon 5.81 ERA, Povich 4.81 ERA) supports a 3-run model-market gap on the total, with the F5 OVER showing the market's biggest single mispricing on the slate at 13.2% edge.
Key Factors
- Coors park factor 1.18 (elite inflation) at 2938ft density altitude — a real, quantifiable scoring boost
- Weak starters both sides: Gordon 5.81 ERA, Povich 4.81 ERA — neither likely to go deep or suppress runs
- F5 edge extreme: 13.2% on F5 OVER 5.5 (63.6% model prob) — biggest single-market mispricing found on the slate
- Model-market gap: 14.07 vs 11.0 = +3.07 runs (28% higher than market total)
Risk Factors
- Coors altitude effects show wide game-to-game variance (0.9x-1.3x historically) — model's 1.18x assumption could be off in either direction
- Both bullpens are below-average (COL 4.55 ERA with a shaky 5.41 closer, BAL 4.14 ERA) — limited late-inning suppression capability, cuts both ways
- OVER market disabled system-wide — only qualifying here due to altitude + weak-starter combination clearing 12%+ threshold with real justification
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 50.2%
-4.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-4.8 pts
Total
11.0
+6.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.