FINAL: TB 2 — NYM 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 5.3 - NYM 4.0 (TB at 60.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
TB
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM W4TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.3 — NYM 4.0
Actual
TB 2 — NYM 3
Pick Results
NYM @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.88u
NYM @ TB F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%91 mph19% whiff
FF26%96 mph28% whiff
SI20%94 mph15% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH30%83 mph35% whiff
FF27%91 mph21% whiff
ST21%82 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F7 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.16ERA
4.26FIP
9.44K/9
4.17BB/9
1.37WHIP
TB
3.53ERA
3.86FIP
8.85K/9
2.72BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-10.5% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-7.1% EV
-204
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-5.7% EV
-133
ML HOME
-3.8% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+2.3% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-2.2% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
33.4% win
TB F5
3.2 runs
52.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Robert Stock | Park: 0.92x
Mark Vientos NYM23.3%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Lindor NYM22.5%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robert Stock
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Ian Seymour
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Robert Stock's 7.99 ERA is a glaring liability that the market's modest 7.5 total doesn't fully account for, while Seymour (4.55 ERA) gives TB a competent but unspectacular arm — the pitcher gap alone supports a lean over.
Key Factors
- Starter liability: Stock 7.99 ERA, 20% K, 12.4% BB — among the weakest arms in the sample
- Seymour competence: 4.55 ERA, 28.6% K rate, B+ overall grade — solid floor for TB
- Indoor neutral environment (Tropicana roof closed) removes weather confound, isolating the pitcher-driven edge
- Model-market total gap: 9.36 vs 7.5 = +1.86 runs, driven by Stock's expected shellacking
Risk Factors
- OVER market is historically disabled system-wide (a supportive track record, -10.4u) — only playing because pitcher-driven edge is unusually clean
- TB bullpen (3.53 ERA, 1.76 closer ERA) is solid and could cap total if game turns into shutdown mode after Stock exits early
- NYM lost Luis Robert Jr. to BAL waiver claim — minor lineup depth reduction already priced into the market
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 60.3%
-2.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.2 pts
Total
7.5
+2.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.