FINAL: TEX 8 — OAK 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 3.6 - OAK 2.8 (TEX at 58.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
TEX
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXOAK
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5TEX W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.6 — OAK 2.8
Actual
TEX 8 — OAK 1
Pick Results
OAK @ TEX F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.55u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph20% whiff
SL22%87 mph26% whiff
CU11%82 mph24% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph37% whiff
CH13%90 mph45% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
98°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.28ERA
4.43FIP
9.65K/9
4.59BB/9
1.56WHIP
TEX
4.32ERA
4.38FIP
8.58K/9
3.79BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-16.1% EV
+114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.2% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-233
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.0% EV
-115
ML AWAY
+7.1% EV
+194
F5 UNDER 3.5
+6.1% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.5 runs
30.6% win
TEX F5
2.1 runs
48.2% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
63.3%
YRFI
36.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Max Muncy OAK27.6%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 1.02x
Jake Burger TEX27.4%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX27.2%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
deGrom (4.55 ERA, elite K rate) is clearly a tier above Jump (5.07 ERA), and combined with a superior TEX bullpen and a controlled roof environment, the market's 7.5 total sits nearly a full run above the model's 6.4 projection.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: deGrom 4.55 ERA, 29.3% K vs Jump 5.07 ERA, 25.1% K — clear ace vs competent-arm gap
- Bullpen gap: TEX 4.32 ERA vs OAK 5.28 ERA (bottom-5 league) — nearly a full run of relief advantage for home
- Controlled environment: retractable roof insulates from 97.6F heat, removing weather variance from the equation
- Multi-market confirmation: NRFI 2.1% edge (60.8% prob), F5 UNDER 3.5 edge 6.1% — all pointing the same direction
Risk Factors
- Market heavily favors TEX (-208) — if OAK falls behind early, garbage-time scoring risk against the under exists
- If roof is open rather than closed, 97.6F heat + 1.047 HR multiplier could add unplanned runs
- Jump, while inferior, isn't disastrous (5.07 ERA) and could limit damage through 5-6 innings
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 58.8%
-10.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.2 pts
Total
7.5
+9.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.