FINAL: CHC 17 — MIL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 5.8 - MIL 5.5 (CHC at 54.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
CHC
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
467
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.8 — MIL 5.5
Actual
CHC 17 — MIL 3
Pick Results
MIL @ CHC F5 OVER 5.5f5WIN+0.56u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%95 mph27% whiff
SV31%82 mph28% whiff
CH9%86 mph20% whiff
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI51%93 mph9% whiff
ST18%82 mph26% whiff
CH14%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
87°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.100 Total: 1.054
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.17ERA
3.52FIP
9.22K/9
3.59BB/9
1.22WHIP
CHC
4.24ERA
4.65FIP
9.36K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-12.8% EV
-112
NRFI YRFI
-7.1% EV
-135
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.9% EV
+150
F5 OVER 5.5
+6.4% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-4.8% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+4.0% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.9 runs
36.9% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
51.5% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Kyle Harrison | Park: 1.03x
Jake Bauers MIL27.4%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC25.2%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Kyle Harrison | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Wrigley's 10 mph wind blowing out (1.054x multiplier) is the driver here — both starters (Holmes 2.44 ERA, Harrison 3.01 ERA) are quality, so the 1.81-run model-market gap is coming from environment, not pitcher weakness, and that's a credible over signal.
Key Factors
- Wind driver: Wrigley 10mph OUT = 1.054x total multiplier, 1.1x HR multiplier — real environmental tailwind
- Both starters are quality (Holmes 2.44 ERA, Harrison 3.01 ERA) — this is a park/weather play, not a pitcher-mismatch play
- Model-market gap: 11.31 vs 9.5 = +1.81 runs, credible given wind conditions
- Elite power threats on both sides: Crow-Armstrong 30.0% HR prob (ISO.266), Bauers 27.4% HR prob
Risk Factors
- OVER market disabled system-wide (a supportive track record, -10.4u) — only playing due to specific wind driver clearing bar, but conviction is moderate not max
- Holmes' elite sinker (51% usage) is ground-ball oriented and could suppress HRs even in favorable wind
- F5 OVER edge (6.4%) sits below the 8% F5 threshold, so game-total OVER is the stronger play, not F5
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.5%
-2.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.7 pts
Total
9.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.