MIA vs WSH prediction for August 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.3 - MIA 4.6. WSH is favored with a 52.5% win probability. WSH wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
WSH
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHMIA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
WSH
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%94 mph19% whiff
CH15%87 mph20% whiff
ST13%82 mph16% whiff
Will Dion L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%91 mph24% whiff
CH25%78 mph41% whiff
CU20%81 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
90°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.19ERA
3.82FIP
9.85K/9
4.21BB/9
1.29WHIP
WSH
5.74ERA
5.32FIP
8.93K/9
4.99BB/9
1.59WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.3 runs
40.3% win
WSH F5
2.4 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Cade Cavalli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.