FINAL: HOU 6 — CWS 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 5.0 - CWS 5.0 (HOU at 53.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
HOU
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUCWS
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS L4HOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 5.0 — CWS 5.0
Actual
HOU 6 — CWS 3
Pick Results
HOU MLmlWIN+0.38u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%83 mph36% whiff
FC18%92 mph18% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%94 mph22% whiff
CH24%87 mph33% whiff
SL12%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
90°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.35ERA
4.52FIP
9.03K/9
4.61BB/9
1.38WHIP
HOU
3.53ERA
3.94FIP
9.28K/9
3.54BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-139
NRFI NRFI
-6.3% EV
-114
NRFI YRFI
-5.7% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.9% EV
+158
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.0% EV
-192
F5 OVER 4.5
+3.4% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.9 runs
41.4% win
HOU F5
3.0 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
49.7%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
This is a coin-flip game with all edges under 3.5% across every market — no pitcher, bullpen, or weather driver is strong enough to justify action despite HOU's elite closer.
Key Factors
- Marginal pitcher edge: Lambert 3.95 ERA vs Kay 4.42 ERA — 0.47 gap, not decisive
- Bullpen edge modest overall despite elite HOU closer: team ERA 3.53 vs 4.35
- Neutral environment: retractable roof closed, negligible wind
- All directional edges below threshold: ML home -2.8%, away -0.4%, F5 OVER only 3.4%
Risk Factors
- Coinflip-level ML pricing increases outcome randomness
- TOTAL edge (1.54 runs, ~9.4% prob edge) below our 12%+ TOTAL market threshold
- If roof were open, heat could inflate scoring beyond model expectation
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 53.3%
-4.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.