FINAL: BOS 9 — SEA 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 5.6 - SEA 5.7 (BOS at 52.8% win probability). BOS wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
BOS
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSEA
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W4BOS L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
BOS
468
Projected
BOS 5.6 — SEA 5.7
Actual
BOS 9 — SEA 8
Pick Results
SEA @ BOS F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.54u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%97 mph21% whiff
ST29%87 mph25% whiff
SI20%97 mph10% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%96 mph25% whiff
SI22%95 mph12% whiff
FC20%89 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.90ERA
4.05FIP
8.99K/9
3.48BB/9
1.31WHIP
BOS
3.18ERA
3.36FIP
9.54K/9
3.01BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-13.8% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+13.6% EV
-115
F5 OVER 4.5
+13.2% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
-11.1% EV
-149
F5_ML AWAY
+7.2% EV
+136
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.7% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.0 runs
42.2% win
BOS F5
3.0 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Dominic Canzone SEA27.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x
Cal Raleigh SEA24.2%
ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS22.4%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs George Kirby | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Both lineups carry elite power bats and neither starter dominates (Tolle 3.34 ERA, Kirby 4.34 ERA), so the market's 7.5 total badly underprices a game the model sees averaging 11.22 runs — the biggest model-market total gap on the slate, backed by historically well-supported F5 history.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap: Tolle 3.34 ERA (above average) vs Kirby 4.34 ERA (below average) — favors offense overall
- Run projection gap: model 11.22 vs market 7.5 = +3.72 runs, largest total mismatch on the slate
- historically well-supported F5: a supportive track record on 39 tracked bets (+1.56u), F5 OVER edge specifically 13.2% (53.4% model prob)
- Elite power bats on both sides: Canhistorical support 27.0% HR prob (ISO.194), Raleigh 24.2% HR prob (ISO.143)
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled system-wide (a supportive track record) — only playing because edge (13.6%) clears the 12%+ threshold and is backed by GREEN F5 historical support
- Both bullpens are actually strong (BOS 3.18 ERA elite, SEA 3.90 ERA above-average), which could suppress late innings if starters exit early
- Roster injuries (Contreras, Yoshida out for BOS; Donovan, Raley out for SEA) create some lineup uncertainty, though model already reflects available players
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 52.8%
-6.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.7 pts
Total
7.5
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.