FINAL: ATL 3 — SF 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 4.2 - SF 3.2 (ATL at 60.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
ATL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSF
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF W4ATL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.2% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 4.2 — SF 3.2
Actual
ATL 3 — SF 7
Pick Results
SF @ ATL F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.65u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Molina R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%96 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph22% whiff
CU15%84 mph44% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%91 mph11% whiff
SL23%83 mph27% whiff
FF22%92 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
94°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.73ERA
4.49FIP
7.37K/9
4.42BB/9
1.48WHIP
ATL
3.03ERA
3.33FIP
9.72K/9
3.25BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-20.9% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.6% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+14.5% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+11.7% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-7.9% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.6% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
35.4% win
ATL F5
2.2 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Bryce Elder | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.284 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Anthony Molina | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL27.5%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Anthony Molina | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Molina
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model UNDER edge (14.5%, 61.2% prob) is real (Molina 3.12 ERA outpitches Elder 4.27 ERA) but TOTAL market is historically disabled (a supportive track record, -1.6u, 0/3 qualifier windows) — calibration discipline requires passing regardless of game-level edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Molina 3.12 ERA vs Elder 4.27 ERA — 1.15 ERA gap favors away arm
- ATL bullpen elite: 1.485 Q-rating, closer ERA 1.84, setup ERA 2.42
- Model-market gap 20pp on prob but TOTAL market disabled (a supportive track record, -1.6u) league-wide
- Park factor neutral: 1.0, no environmental tailwind for unders or overs
Risk Factors
- Neutral park + 93.5F heat could add 0.3-0.5 runs, working against the under thesis
- ATL's win streak correlates with occasional blowout scoring that could push total over model projection
- NRFI at only 55.3% model prob — first-inning edge not as strong as full-game number suggests
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 60.8%
-4.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.6 pts
Total
9.0
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.